Wealth Itself » Wealth Preservation

Google Foreclosed Home Search

andum — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 23:37:13 +0000

NOTE: In 2011, Google stopped offering real estate search as a feature of their maps.

Notice all of the red dots on the US map – these represent homes that are currently under foreclosure. But, since this is a map of the US, the red dots actually represent clusters of foreclosed homes. If you want to see foreclosed homes by address, start with this link to Google real estate search. Once you have entered an address, if you check off the box next to Foreclosure, the search will return foreclosed homes by street, neighborhood, etc.

I read recently that the number of homes currently for sale is equal to the number of the shadow home inventory – homes representing distressed mortgages that have not yet been listed for sale. It will be difficult for home prices to improve in communities with a high number of foreclosed homes for sale and a large shadow inventory of homes that will eventually be listed for sale.

Wall St. Bank Stock Recommendations

andum — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 19:23:01 +0000

Are you thinking about investing in the major US banks? Zero Hedge put together the above graphic to show the cozy relationship between the major US banks. Each of the green arrows shows one bank recommending the stock of another bank. Most of the red arrows come from an analyst at a European bank. Go to Zero Hedge to read the post and see the graphic in more detail. What I want to know is how much of each of these bank’s assets include stock in the banks that they are recommending. I also want to know if they were buyers or sellers after their recommendations came out. Buying stock solely on the basis of a recommendation is a loser’s strategy. You should have a basis for the investment (fundamental and/or technical) that you understand and a target price or plan to sell. This is not a time to buy and hold. Stock downgrades typically come out too late and/or after the institutional stock owners have sold.

Average US Housing Price to Return to Peak Price in 2020

andum — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 04:29:47 +0000

Paul Kedrosky of the Calculated Risk blog has posted the above graphic prepared by Moody’s economy.com (see full post here or click on graphic) that suggests that the recent peak housing prices will not return to the states hardest hit by falling home prices, such as California and Florida, until after 2023. The average US home price is not expected to return to the recent peak until 2020. Of course, these projections are based on assumptions that may not be met. But, if you own a home and are underwater and hoping for a quick return to a positive equity position, these estimates should temper some of your optimism. Note that the CSI acronym included in the graphic is the Case-Shiller index, a calculation based on repeat sales of US single family homes.

Economist Hyman Minsky – Economic Crises Inevitable

andum — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 03:55:49 +0000

photo credit: MjaMes1408

Interesting overview of Hyman Minsky in the Boston Globe (see article here), a 20th century Harvard trained economist who was not considered to have had a major influence on macroeconomic thought during his lifetime or after his death – until now. Apparently, his ideas are now in vogue. The article highlights his “Financial Instability Hypothesis” – namely, that economic crises arise after periods of economic stability, not instability, when lenders and borrowers take on more risk in order to make more money. His proposed solutions to a depression like crisis included having the Federal Reserve serve as a lender to firms in trouble (being done) and having the government employ those out of work (not likely). (credit to Barry Ritholtz of the Big Picture blog)

10 Year Treasury Note Predicting Stock Market Drop?

andum — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 01:30:31 +0000

Andy Dufresne at Zero Hedge just posted the above chart from StockCharts.com of the 10 Year Treasury Note and S&P index (see his post here). Please note on the chart how the 10 Year (in red) peaks before the market peaks and bottoms before the market bottoms, with a lag of 3 to 4 months. If the 10 Year is now rolling over and the same correlation holds true as the chart shows, the market should bottom in the Fall. The good news is that mortgage rates will drop, since rates are tied to the 10 Year Note.

April 2009 US Government Receipts – Free Falling

andum — Wed, 13 May 2009 04:13:33 +0000

Last October I pulled some retirement funds out of the market and moved them into a money market fund. I couldn’t bear to watch the shrinking balance, especially when the economic news seemed so dire. I decided I would rather preserve the reduced balance rather than take a chance that there was more pain to follow (there was). Since then I decided to spend more time reading about the economy, both optimistic and pessimistic viewpoints. My opinion, based on this reading, continues towards believing that there is more bad news looming for the economy – even in the presence of the ongoing stock market rally. It is difficult to think differently based on the new release of the US Treasury Monthly Statement (see document here ). Receipts for April 2009 – the month that typically results in the largest inflow of the year – was 34% less than April 2008 (see Table below). Receipts for what should be the best income month of the year for the US government were less than government outlays (as has every month since September 2008). This number suggests that the deficit estimates are probably optimistic (even after the upward revision this week), that the dollar will weaken and that the threat of inflation will start to play an even more prominent role in investor psyche. (credit to The Automatic Earth / Alea)

My Online Glasses Do Not Work – Why?

andum — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 04:56:07 +0000

photo credit: net_efekt

Some visitors have found my previous post on buying eyeglasses online because they were searching for help in figuring out why they could not see with the glasses that they had purchased online or they wanted help with measuring their PD. In this post I will list some of the reasons why your vision might not be best with your new glasses and help you troubleshoot. I also have included some links at the end of this post that will help you measure your PD accurately.

Before you read further … it is always a good idea to figure out if your vision is poor with one or both eyes. To check this, alternately cover each eye and compare the vision with each eye while looking at distance or near – where ever you may be having a problem.

Prescription is Not Correct

Consider this a possibility if the new pair of glasses is your first pair with the new prescription. If there was an error in determining your prescription or when writing it down, it is more likely that one eye is wrong than both eyes. If you suspect that the prescription is wrong, you will have to return to the eye doctor that provided you with the new prescription or find a new doctor.

Glasses Not Made Correctly

Eyeglasses sold in the United States have to be prepared to documented accuracy standards. Of course, people make mistakes when fabricating glasses that are not caught during the inspection process or purposely release the glasses thinking that the error is either not significant or will not be noticed by the patient. It is more likely that the error will be made with one lens rather than both lenses. One way to check this error is to find an optician or eye doctor’s office with a dispensary and ask them to verify the glasses against the prescription. I would suggest that you return to the doctor’s office that provided you with the prescription – they might not like that you did not buy your glasses from them but they will still want you as a patient.

Distance PD is Not Correct

The PD is the measurement that specifies the point in the lens that you will be looking through when looking straight ahead. Since the PD is not routinely provided with your prescription, many patients will have to figure out how to measure their own PD in order to complete the prescription (see links below). I reviewed the difficulty in getting this correct in my earlier post linked above. Please note that this is an issue more likely to effect patients with higher prescriptions or when ordering no-line bifocals. To summarize, errors can occur when measuring your PD, in fabrication or when the PD for each eye is not identical and the online form assumes that the PD for each eye is equal.

Here is one way for you to check to see if the PD is incorrect. Cover one eye and look a little bit to the left and then right and see if your vision improves. If it does, this may mean the prescription is correct but the PD is wrong for one or both eyes. If your vision does not improve, either re-measure your PD and compare against the values that you provided when ordering the glasses or have the PD of your glasses verified.

Near PD is Not Correct

The near PD is used when ordering reading glasses. If you have ordered reading glasses and you have a high prescription and you have provided your distance PD, then you will not be looking through the optimal point of the lenses. On average the near PD is 1.5 mm less than the distance PD for each eye or 3 mm for both eyes (binocular). Most bifocal eyeglass orders do not require a near PD.

Fitting Height is Wrong

This only applies if you have purchased bifocals. It is somewhat easy to check and see if the fitting height is incorrect – simply move your head up and down and see if your vision improves. If your vision improves when tilting your head down, the fitting height is too high (number too big). If your vision improves when you tilt your head back, then the fitting height is too low (number too small).

PD Measurement Links

Although most of the online eyeglass retailers provide assistance in measuring your PD, not all provide a method that is very accurate. Below is a link for printing your own millimeter ruler and two links to help your friend measure your PD (I don’t recommend trying to measure your own PD). I suggest that you follow the directions in both links and compare the results.

I have reviewed some of the more common reasons for having trouble with new eyeglasses – there are others. If you have questions or want advice, please post a comment and I will reply as soon as possible.

S&P Chart – Bear Rally or New Bull Market (April 2, 2009)?

andum — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 22:28:33 +0000

Chart from dshort.com - Click on chart for full size

I have posted a chart from dshort.com that contains the plots of the S&P averages during the last four major bear markets. While the stock market seems to be roaring ahead now, it is wise to remember that bear markets do not go straight down – even the crash of 1929 had bear market rallies. Also, the chart points out that we are 18 months into this recession – it took 30.5 months to reach the bottom of the tech market crash that started in 2000. Sometimes wealth preservation is the better option than wealth creation.